Demographic impact of recent outmigration from Poland

Marta Anacka, University of Warsaw
Agnieszka Fihel, University of Warsaw

In May 2014 Poland will celebrate 10 years of membership in European Union. This has been a decade of intensive international outmigration of Polish nationals that contributes to depopulation and the process of ageing. In 2011 approximately 1,565 thousand persons have been abroad for at least 12 months, that is 4% of resident population. In some regions of Poland and in some demographic groups (i.e. persons aged 25-34) population loss amounts to 10% or more. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we present demographic impact of the post-2004 outflow on Polish population, its age structure and natality in Poland. Second, we modify official forecasts made by the Central Statistical Office of Poland and by Eurostat by considering this outmigration. We also present three scenarios of forecasts allowing for possible returns. Preliminary findings show that due to the post-2004 outmigration the population of Poland will be in 2035 by 7% smaller than estimated by the CSO, and the process of ageing will be significantly more advanced.