Demographic waves – the connection between the effects of demographic echo in Poland and the causes behind new demographic tendencies

Andrzej Raczaszek, University of Economics

Natural growth is the main factor affecting the structure and state of a population. In Poland natural growth remained high throughout the 20th century. That tendency changed, however, at the beginning of the 21st century. Over a few years of the last decade Poland's natural growth has even gone into negative figures. Experts are analysing causes of those new tendencies, searching for a connection between the observed changes and the theory of demographic transition. Many facts point to the natural growth rate being negatively affected by political transformation. It should, however, be assumed that the causes include both consequences of the transformation and a demographic transition Poland has experienced on its way to modernity. What should not be forgotten though, are other past events, which had determined the course of demographic processes. The demographic echo continues to generate demographic waves, consequences of which can currently be observed especially in the process of education and in the labour market.