High intention for single-child family among prospective couples in Iran: is it a sign of second demographic transition?

Farideh Khalajabadi Farahani, National Institute in Population Studies and Comprehensive Management of I.R. of Iran

Since 2006, the majority of provinces in Iran has experienced below replacement fertility. Below replacement fertility indicates that at least a significant proportion of couples stop at one child in their life time course. This paper aims to assess intention of one child family and its determinants among new cohorts of marriage in Tehran. The Tehran Single Child Intention Study (TSCIS) was conducted in July and August 2012 among a representative sample of men and women who attended to compulsory premarital screening programs. In the first phase of the survey, 871 men and women were enrolled using a two- stage cluster sampling and filled valid, reliable and pilot tested, self- administered questionnaire. The results showed approximately, 46% of men and women intended to have single child. Multivariate analysis showed some determinants of intention for one child differ between genders. Among men, higher Individualism (OR=1.34, p<0.01), lower concerns of having one child (OR=0.74, p<0.05), greater egalitarian gender beliefs (OR=4.66,p<0.001) and greater social concerns related to childrearing (OR=1.34,p<0.001) were determinants of intention for one child. While, among women, older age (OR=1.08, p<0.05), greater social concerns related to child rearing (OR=1.11, p<0.01), greater individualism (OR=1.31, p<0.01), lower concerns of consequences of having single child (OR=0.60, p<0.001) and greater idealism in childrearing (OR=1.71, p<0.01) were determinants of intention for one child. Hence, we can predict that in new cohorts of marriage in Tehran, fertility will remain in a low rate at below replacement level. It seems that besides social concerns, more internal control such as personal and ideational factors are responsible for fertility intention of one-child (increased individualism and equal gender beliefs) which can be signs of transitions towards more internal control on fertility behavior consistent with theory of Second Demographic Transition Theory.