The future of religion: projecting global religious populations to 2050

Marcin Stonawski, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Cracow University of Economics
Conrad Hackett, Pew Research Center
Vegard Skirbekk, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Michaela Potancokova, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)
Phillip Connor, Pew Research Center
Guy J. Abel, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)
Brian J. Grim, Religious Freedom & Business Foundation

Religious populations are likely to change considerably by 2050 due to differences by religion in age structure, fertility, migration and switching patterns. This paper presents results from multi-state projections which take these factors into account to produce linked projections for over 200 countries. Input data is drawn from analysis of data extracted from over 2,500 censuses and surveys. We describe global religious change, regional religious change, the influence of each type of input data, and the projected characteristics of eight major religious groups – Christians, Muslims, the unaffiliated, Hindus, Buddhists, members of folk or traditional religions, other religions, and Jews.