Lessons from the recent recession - demographic changes revisited: case of Latvia

Juris Krumins, University of Latvia

Lessons from the recent recession - demographic changes revisited: case of Latvia Juris Krumins, University of Latvia (Riga) Short abstract Key-words: impact of recession, demographic changes, population census, Latvia. The aim of study is to summarise main lessons from the recent recession in a light of results from the Population Census 2011 and following backward recalculations of demographic data and to demonstrate their impact on demographic changes in Latvia. Among the main outcomes of study are: 1) Recent recession influenced a rise of unemployment, inflation and decline of real wages, which forced significant out-flaw of working-age population to leave a country to look for employment options and decent income. That out-flow was partially recorded by official statistics which to great extent rely on registered changes of residency in Population Register. Due to growing unregistered net migration difference between factual and estimated number of population (and registered number of residents in Population Register) exceeded in Census 2011 seven per cent; 2) Use of combined face-to-face interviews, Internet registration and different state administrative registers allowed to clarify factual resident population during Census 2011 and to perform backward recalculations of number of population and demographic indicators for pre-census period. New methodology was implemented by the CSB to improve the post-census demographic estimates; 3) Problem of incomplete exit declarations in the Population Register is not prevented yet. Difference between contemporary population figures estimated by the CSB and registered number of residents by the Population Register still exceeds eight per cent; 4) Recession determined a decline of fertility. That decline was to a lesser extent, measured by the post-census recalculated data compared to previously estimated data; 5) Life expectancy during recession continued to increase, but by lower absolute increase in comparison with the pre-census estimates.