Projection of the educational attainment of the Hungarian population from 2001 to 2030: modelling education with a dynamic microsimulation model - ISMIK

Julia Varga, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS)
Zoltán Hermann, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS)

The paper presents a dynamic microsimulation model (ISMIK) which was developed to project individuals’ educational participation and qualification. The microsimulation model simulates education events at the individual level. The model projects educational participation and attainment of the Hungarian population over a period of 30 years (2001-2030) by age, gender, region in 6 qualification categories using a 50 per cent sample of the Hungarian Census of 2001 as the initial model population. We present the results of the base scenario when all parameters (transition probabilities) are assumed to be time invariant, that is, this scenario projects education level of the population on the condition that everything continues as in the early 2000s. In addition to the base scenario we present the results of alternative scenarios. The first one investigates what would have been educational attainment of the population had Roma and Non-roma students had the same opportunities in their schooling career. The further scenarios measure the effects of educational policy changes: reducing the duration of compulsory schooling; increasing the share of students in secondary vocational training schools; and reducing the number of state-funded places in higher education.