Demographic trends in developing countries: convergence or divergence processes?

Anna Paterno, Università degli Studi di Bari
Isabella Corazziari, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT)
Giuseppe Gabrielli, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Silvana Salvini, Università di Firenze

Recent years are characterized by both a rise in life expectancy and a further fall in fertility in the developing countries (DCs). These processes coexist with large heterogeneity according to the specific living conditions of countries. The aim of our research is to analyse the trends of specific demographic parameters regarding mortality and fertility, jointly with some socio-economic characteristics of more than 100 DCs, to assess if convergence patterns in demographic behaviours prevail or if marked differences persist. As the paths of mortality and fertility in fact differ deeply over space and time, we need a specific statistical multi-way analysis technique that consider the time series dimension. Thus, we apply Dynamic Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis of trajectories in order to evaluate at macro-level the main demographic trends of DCs in the 1995-2010 period. Results let us reconsider the processes of convergence and enlighten the heterogeneity among clusters.