The cohort fertility transition in Slovakia: the postponement and recuperation process

Branislav Šprocha, Institute of Informatics and Statistics (INFOSTAT)

In the last two decades we can identify the dynamic and dramatic changes in reproductive behavior of the Slovak population.Since the 1990s, fertility trends in Slovakia have been marked by two interrelated factors: enter into parenthood and motherhood have been shifted to later ages and fertility rates have declined. The aim of this article is to analyse cohort fertility development in Slovakia and describe the changes of cohort fertility among women born in 1965-1985 using the model of fertility postponement and subsequent recuperation. Postponement in this meaning represents cumulative fertility decline in all ages when fertility has fallen in comparison with selected benchmark cohort. On the other side, recuperation express fertility increases in all ages when fertility has increased. In coincidence of our aim was computed some indicators (for example postponement and recuperation measure, recuperation index)which describe cohort fertility changes among young Slovak women born in 1970s and 1980s. Each of them was specified by birth order and compared with situation in selected European countries. It is apparent that the process of postponing fertility into the late 20s or 30s in Slovakia started among the cohorts in the first half of 1970s. The force of fertility recuperation differs widely by birth order. Our analysis has showed an earlier decline with relatively strong recuperation in first birth rates and later decline with significatly lower force of recuperation in second and higher-order. It seems to be, that the decline in second and mainly in third and higher-order will be in young cohort permanent. The dominant position in terms of postponing fertility in cohort perspective has postponement of the first-order births, but the final overall decline of the cohort fertility will be saturated by low recuperation of the second and higher-order births.