Marginal risk progression of non-communicable chronic diseases with varying ages in India: an application of competing risk model

Raj Kumar Verma, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

This study investigates the marginal risk of major non-communicable chronic diseases at different ages and their socio-demographic differentials in India. The diseases considered for this study are CVD, asthma, arthritis, mental illness, diabetes and cancer. Marginal or true risk is estimated for a disease assuming rest five diseases as competing risk and is measured in terms of cumulative incidence function. 60th round data of National Sample Survey on Morbidity and Health Care, 2004 is used which is covering 73868 nationally representative households. For estimating the marginal risk a popular model for the cumulative incidence function given by Fine & Gray (1999) is used. Prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is highest among rest chronic diseases in the overall population. The risk of major chronic diseases starts at the age around 40’s. By the age of 70 years, the marginal risk of bronchial asthma is 4% for female and 6% for male respectively. Females have double risk of being affected with CVD and arthritis in India in compare to male. There is early onset of mental illness in Indian population and diabetes onset is comparatively late. Onset of CVD and diabetes among richer and highly educated people is comparatively earlier. This study explores the wide disparities in marginal risk of chronic diseases among socio-economic and demographic subgroups of Indian population. With accounting the importance of non-communicable diseases in India, now, the time has come for health policy makers to develop the disease-oriented prevention and control programmes.