International migration and the formation of the "new population" in the context of the demographic transition theory

Vladimir Iontsev, Moscow State University
Yulia A. Prokhorova, Lomonosov Moscow State University

In the presentation which we are going to show at the conference the role of international migration in the formation of a ‘new population’ through the prism of the demographic transition in all its diversity will be discussed. The diversity of the transition is not only the transformations that had taken place within the classical demographic transition theory, but also in its modifications, which are reflected in the concepts of the second, the third and the fourth demographic transitions. All of these modifications except for the second demographic transition - the path that many developed countries are following right now, are only possible scenarios of the future demographic development. In the beginning of the 21st century international migration has become an important factor that contributes to a particular path of demographic development. In this case, it may have “negative” and “positive” effects, although we believe that migration of population - it is purely positive phenomenon, which may have negative influence only in consequence of a misunderstanding of its nature and the corresponding incorrect migration policy. Proceeding from this thesis, in 2010, Professor V. Iontsev proposed a different demographic scenario of the future demographic development, which was designated as “the fourth demographic transition” and was co-developed in scientific research with Y. Prokhorova. The main idea of the proposed concept is that migration can be positive phenomenon for the future demographic development, which takes into account national and global interests through promotion marriages between native people and migrants. We emphasize that we're not just talking about marriages between people of different nationalities, but namely about marriages between immigrants and the native population. The main criteria is that citizenship should be different. This new population should have high reproductive attitudes and relevant qualitative characteristics that meet all the requirements of contemporary development.