Migration and fertility in Portugal, evidence from ESS 2010

Maria Magalhaes, Statistics Portugal and University of Évora
Maria Mendes, Universidade de Évora
Paulo Infante, University of Évora /CIMA

The last decades had been characterized by a continuous decline in fertility among the countries of Southern Europe, which includes Portugal, were since 2001 the total fertility rate remains below 1.50 and have reached 1.28 children per woman in 2012. In this context, the proportion of live births to mothers of foreign nationality has risen from 2.2% in 1995 to 10.6% in 2010, 10.3% in 2011 falling by 9.8% in 2012. On the other hand, the most recent decline in fertility in Portugal, namely after 2008, is simultaneous with increasing emigration levels and decreasing levels of immigration. Considering that the intention of individuals to have (more) children can be considered a good predictor of fertility in the next future, this paper will focus the analysis on the results of the European Social Survey, which took place in 2010 and covered 28 countries, including Portugal, with the main objective to know whether there are significant differences in the intention to have (more) children in the next three years between “no-immigrants” and “immigrants” as well as between “no-emigrants” and “emigrants”.