Childbirth trends in Estonia in the light of the 2011 census

Mare Vähi, University of Tartu
Ene-Margit Tiit, University of Tartu

Low birth rate and the negative natural increase is a matter of existential importance for Estonia. Frequently asked question is: what should be done to make Estonian women bear more children. To some extent, this question can be answered by identifying the factors or circumstances associated with childbirth patterns, including the number of children born. The Population Census added some new information in that respect. The Census data also enable to determine the completed fertility rate of the cohorts of women who are past their childbearing years. It shows the number of children born to women in the course of their lives. The 2011 Population Census included two questions directly pertinent to childbirth trends. The questions concerned the number of children born to a woman and the woman’s age at first birth. These questions are not part of the international (or European) mandatory questions but they have been used, with small variations, in previous population censuses organised by the Estonian state. The aim of the study was to describe factors that influence the number of children born to a woman and forecasting the number of births. In forecasting the number of births important factors are taken into consideration.