First birth behavior of 1.5 and second generation Turkish migrants in Germany

Katharina Wolf, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Sandra Krapf, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

This study investigates the differences of fertility patterns of 1.5th and 2nd generation Turkish migrants compared to native Germans. Assimilation theory assumes an integration process over time, resulting in similarity between migrants and natives. Based on that, we expect a decrease in fertility differences between Turkish migrants and native Germans for younger migration generations. For the empirical analyses, we use new data from the German Mikrozensus (waves 2005 and 2009). It allows us to consider respondents with a Turkish migration background as a single group and distinguish between the 1.5th generation of migrants, namely those who migrated during childhood, and the second generation that was born in Germany. In a first step, we investigate first birth patterns of women in the age group 18 to 40 using survival curves. For the multivariate analyses, we run discrete time hazard models to identify the effect of individual level characteristics on the transition to first births. Our key variable of interest is the educational attainment of respondents. As the 2nd migrant generation has higher educational attainment than the 1.5th generation, we plan to analyze in how far fertility differences over migrant generations are caused by the educational composition of the sample and if education determines fertility in the same way for both migrant generations compared to native Germans.