How the current economic crises may influence the forthcoming fertility intentions in the Southern European Countries?

Andréia B. F. Maciel, University of Évora/ CIDEHUS/ FCT
Maria Mendes, Universidade de Évora
Paulo Infante, University of Évora /CIMA

Over the past decades, many studies have attempted to describe and explain the persistence of low fertility rates among the countries of South Europe. Considering the sustained decline in fertility, in these countries, this paper aim to contribute to characterize the individuals who plan to have children in the forthcoming future versus those who intend to have them later. Additionally, it intends to analyse the extent to which different social and demographic circumstances are related with those intentions, among residents in the Southern European countries. Using data from Eurobarometer 2011, we use a logistic regression model to identify and quantify the effect of significant covariates in the planning of childbirth in the short term. Our results show that fertility intentions differ between countries and according several socio-demographic factors, such as age, partnership and labour market participation. In the Southern European countries, are more likely to intend to have a child, in the next three years, those who participate in the labour market, aged over 29 years old, married and residents in Italy.