Comparison of different fertility indicators in the case of three adjacent Central-European Countries (Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia)

Petra Németh, Corvinus University of Budapest
Éva Berde, Corvinus University of Budapest

Our paper’s main focus is the Hungarian fertility trend. We accomplish the trend analysis by comparing fertility series of Hungary to those in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, because the history and economy of these three Central-European countries are very similar. We reveal that fertility indicators based on different methodologies and the completed cohort fertility rate vary very analogously in the three countries. The time series of fertility rates indicate that fertility has dropped in each of the three countries in the last two decades. Additionally, the most critical fertility situation is in Hungary. However even the worst fertility values of Hungary are not as bad as would be suggested by the traditional TFR. Tempo and parity adjusting of the TFR help us to get closer to real tendencies. Our paper consists of three parts. First we compare the Czech, Hungarian and Slovak fertility trends using Total Fertility Rates, the Tempo and Parity Adjusted Total Fertility Rates proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney [2004, 2006] and the Tempo, Parity and Age Adjusted Total Fertility Rates introduced by Kohler and Ortega [2002]. We also show that the three main fertility indicators represent more or less similar differences in each country. Second we analyse the relationship between the Completed Cohort Fertilities and the three estimated fertility ratios. Finally we infer the consequences of demographic trends on economic growths in the three countries and conclude.