Planned or spontaneous? Fertility intentions and realization in Russia

Alla Tyndik, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Oxana Sinyavskaya, National Research University Higher School of Economics and Universiteit Maastricht

From the beginning of 2000s there is fertility growth in Russia, which was partly accelerated by the family policy instruments introduced from 2007 and aimed at increasing the number of second and subsequent births. Previous research shows that the number of second and third births has increased from 2007. At the same time, age of entering motherhood is continuously increasing, although at a lower speed comparing to Western and CEEs countries. In this study we analyze how fertility outcomes are related to the previous time-dependent parity-progression fertility intentions using the data of three waves of Russian Generations and Gender Surveys (2004, 2007 and 2011). Micro level analysis allows us understanding better not only the proportion of planned or unintended births, as well as not realized intentions, but also the individual characteristics associated with each fertility outcome. Our findings show that realization of the first births has at least not changed from 2007 to 2011 comparing to 2004 – 2007, while realization of the second and subsequent births has substantially improved. In addition to fertility intentions, the most important factors of fertility outcomes are partnership status, parity, and age. The effects of social and economic variables are either completely insignificant or unstable.