Projections of ageing migrant populations in France and England and Wales

Jean Louis Rallu, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

Migrant populations are considered to reduce ageing, therefore, there is little work carried out on migrant ageing. However, the large migrant cohorts who entered in the 1960s and early 1970s are arriving at retirement ages. Projections of older migrants are necessary to assess their impact on ageing and future needs in social and health services for linguistically and culturally diverse populations. We carried out projections of older migrants by origin for France using the component method, with emigration and late immigration rates, including the so-called ‘0 Generation’. Origin of migrants is important because the various migration waves often consisted of specific origins, following decolonization and later the opening of labour markets to other migrants from Southern, Eastern Europe or Asia. Trends will also be affected by migration policies. The closed border policy in France from 1975 to the mid 1980s, with a halt in entries of labourers and the development in family reunification, will impact differently on male and female migrant ageing in the near future. We intend to compare French results with those from other EU countries. Projections are currently available for England and Wales (Lievesley 2010). Other papers by European scholars will provide data for comparisons with other countries. In the next 20 years, the numbers of older Sub-Saharan/Black African migrants will increase almost six folds in both France and, England and Wales, while Chinese and other Asians in E&W, and Turks and ‘others’ in France will increase 3 to 4 folds. More ancient migrants will see slower increases: between 2 and 3 folds for Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Indians and Moroccans, and by 30 percent to 50 percent for Algerians, non-EU Europeans and Black Caribbean. Increases will often be more rapid for females than for males, owing to family reunification and higher return migration of lone males.