Cohort mortality forecasting: examples from selected European countries

Petr Mazouch, University of Economics, Prague (VSE)
Klara Hulikova Tesarkova, Charles University in Prague

The aim of the paper is to introduce an application of simple alternative approach of mortality modeling (future estimates of mortality rates) which is based on cohort mortality patterns. The assumption of constant change of the force of mortality between two following ages across cohorts is the fundamental base of the proposed model. Theoretical aspects of the model are discussed and its assumptions are verified on data time series from Sweden and other European countries which are long enough for this purpose. Estimation of cohort life expectancy based on presented model for already extinct cohorts is compared with empirical life expectancy which is already known and forecasting of cohort life expectancy for still living cohorts in selected European countries is done. Previous results verified suitability of presented model because differences between modeled and empirical values of life expectancy were low, stable and random. Still the proposed model offers many possibilities of development or modifications.