Migration intentions – between dreams and definite plans. The impact of life-course events on different types of migration potential

Irén Gödri, Demographic Research Institute, Budapest
Gábor Attila Feleky, Demographic Research Institute, Budapest

In Hungary a significant increase in out-migration (reflected in mirror statistics of main destination countries) came about in the late 2000s, and a growing trend of migration potential could also be observed in the past few years. The migration intentions are especially prevalent among the young people. Based on the approach that the primary determinant of migration behaviour is previous migration intention, the paper analyzes the determinants of migration intentions measured in 2013 among 18-40 aged population in Hungary. Different types of migration intentions are identified, taking into account the timing of migration, the actual steps already taken towards migration, the respondents' presumed likelihood of realizing the move, the expected job and wage abroad etc. The paper focuses on the following questions: 1) what are the characteristics of people with different type of migration intentions; 2) what are the major individual determinants of different migration intentions; 3) how are different types of migration intentions related to life-course events? Migration decision-making (the stage between considering and definitely planning migration) are assumed to be influenced by life-course events, especially during life-course transitions (Kley 2011). A number of studies have proved that while realisation of migration plans is determined primarily by financial, network and psychological capital (which promote or hinder the realisation of intentions), the emergence of migration intentions are related to some events of the life-course (such as completing school, beginning or completing tertiary education, beginning a job, leaving parental house, getting married etc.). The impact of life-course events on the probability of different types of migration potential is analysed by logistic regression models, controlling for several other important explanatory variables (such as socio-demographic characteristics, financial and network capital etc). The hypothesis that the influence of life-course events is higher on planning than only considering migration is tested.